Catalyst from Ted Coiné

If you’re currently a CEO, two things are likely:

• You learned to lead in the 20th Century.
• Your days at the helm are numbered.

I’m not merely trying to be provocative. However, it’s hard to argue with these facts. On the calendar, the 20th Century wasn’t that long ago, so some quick math with your CEO’s age will tell you if my first claim is true. As for the second? The average tenure of a CEO is six years. That’s an average, so of course there are CEOs who last less than a year (HP comes to mind), and CEOs who last more than thirty. Both cases are outliers. For most CEOs, eight or ten years is a good run. A bit more math (six minus years already in office) will tell you how you’re doing against this average.

To incumbent CEOs, this stark reminder is probably not that comforting.

To everyone else, I suspect it might be very good news.

When asked who my audience is, I’ve changed my reply in the last year. I used to say, “CEOs, board chairs, and company owners.” Now, I have a different answer. My audience is the next generation of CEO. Here’s why.

In the 20th Century,

1. Knowledge was power, and this power could be hoarded. When business intelligence remains “for your eyes only,” centralization of power and decision-making is a natural result. Thus, more knowledge, held exclusively by leadership, became a competitive advantage.
2. Top-down leadership was efficient. Wisdom born of experience and perpetuated by jeallously-guarded information resided in the C-suite, which passed down direction to the rest of the organization. The organization received this wisdom and executed on it.
3. Advancement within the organization relied on achievement, of course – it had to, or organizations quickly perished. But it also relied heavily on power politics, on patronage, and this encouraged infighting. The result was that successors were created in the image of their leaders. Dramatic change at the helm came rarely. Stability and continuity were tacitly prioritized as a result.

In the 21st Century,

1. The wisdom of crowds has won. Collective knowledge, enabled by collaboration tools, results in more efficient decision making. A small team of general experts can’t compete with the combined insight of a huge network of participants, each an expert in one small aspect of a company’s operations or environment.
2. Democracy at work trumps the all-powerful C-suite when it comes to leading the company in the 21st Century. Rather than being the wellspring of all decisions and problem-solving, the CEO is freed up to be the facilitator of culture.
3. Advancement in modern organizations comes through talent and true merit, rather than cronyism. It has to in order for companies to remain nimble and competitive. Companies of the 21st Century will be much more comfortable turning on a dime, as each generation of leader strikes its own path rather than perpetuating the status quo of its predecessors.

So that’s at least a preliminary look at my first point about current leadership, the idea that many of our current leaders carry legacy baggage from the past century, when life was slower, simpler, and less efficient.

Now, for my second point: that the days of our current CEOs are numbered.

As I likely don’t have to remind you, The Great Recession, which began for many of us in 2007, hasn’t shaken through the economy yet. Depending on your industry, even your part of the world or even of your country, your company falls somewhere in the spectrum of success, from white-knuckle survival through “business as usual”* to thriving. But as a whole, I think it’s fair to say, things are abnormally subdued and will likely remain that way for a while yet.

What this means for our leadership is that there is an unnatural pause on change of leadership. Boards have either already changed their CEO to survive, or they are holding onto the one they have until things quiet down.

The thing is, contraction leaders and expansion leaders are quite rarely the same person. It comes down to temperament. The first has to be careful. The second finds it hard to be.

Looking at businesses as a whole, then, what I think we’re seeing is a lot more CEOs staying on at present than normal.* The result will be a lot more CEO-turnover than normal at some point down the line, as this firing freeze is lifted.

That is why my audience is our next generation of CEOs. I’m here to lend insight to our rising leaders. If that’s you, let’s talk.

For more on this topic:

Here Comes the NextGen CEO

CEOs: Who Tells You When Your Baby’s Ugly?

Leaders: Can You Avoid Extinction?

* Whatever “usual” and “normal” even mean anymore. That, too, is a 20th-Century construct.